A new study led by the University of Exeter has found that electric lorries are now the more cost-effective option over diesel counterparts when lifetime expenses are considered.
The research evaluated the overall ‘total cost of ownership’ for commercial vehicles, factoring in purchase price, fuel or electricity costs, and ongoing maintenance throughout a vehicle’s lifespan. The study identified that the financial ‘tipping point’, where electric vehicles (EVs) become the most economical choice, has already been reached in certain countries.
These findings are detailed in a report from the Economics of Energy Innovation and System Transition (EEIST) programme, led by the University of Exeter in partnership with the International Council on Clean Transportation.
In the UK, the number of newly registered zero-emission heavy goods vehicles (HGVs) surged by 94% in April, although this still amounted to only 97 vehicles, according to data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).
Zero-emission trucks now represent 1% of all new HGV registrations, up from 0.5% a year prior. This marks the highest market share yet recorded for electric HGVs in a single quarter, indicating a modest but rising interest in low-emission commercial transport following a stagnant year.
Although electric trucks still carry a higher upfront cost than diesel models, technological improvements and price reductions are helping to close the gap. For instance, lithium iron phosphate batteries, which are commonly used in electric lorries, have seen prices fall by 86% between 2013 and 2024.
To assess both the current market and the influence of various government policies, the researchers drew on real-world data and modelling techniques.
Dr Akther explained, “Regulatory policies, particularly zero-emission vehicle mandates, but also fleet-wide emissions reduction standards, are generally the most effective way to get electric trucks on the road.
“Subsidies and taxes are less effective on their own, but subsidies can help grow the market for zero-emission vehicles, particularly after some critical demand was met. We also found that policies can work really well when used in combination.”